According to the analysis of IHS, with the surge in low-cost manufacturing capacity of new plastics in North America, the Middle East and China, the global key plastics such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets are developing in the direction of oversupply, which will weaken The profits of manufacturers have changed the global competitive landscape.

1/3 of the world's new PE comes from the United States

IHS predicts that from 2015 to 2020, the world will add 24 million tons of PE, of which more than 1/3 of the new PE capacity of about 8 million tons is from the United States, which will significantly increase the United States' PE, PP and other chemicals The net export value of chemical products will rebalance the global chemical trade flow that has benefited the Middle East for decades.

The growth of shale gas has made North American polyethylene and polypropylene producers more competitive in the market. For a long time, the Middle East has been the world's lowest-priced producer of polyethylene and polypropylene. "IHS Chemical's polyolefin and plastics global business director Nick Vafiadis (Nick Vafiadis) said.

He pointed out: “In the short term, this overcapacity is good news for North American processors. Due to the expansion of PE production capacity, North American processors will be more competitive in the global market. However, in terms of production, , The economy will face challenges. In the short term, global production capacity expansion exceeds market demand growth, and profits will also be affected."

"Chemical producers hope to take advantage of the continuing decline in natural gas and LNG prices in the United States to expand related infrastructure projects," said Chris Geisler, director of chemical consulting at IHS Chemical. "The trade of solid plastics and bulk liquid chemical products in the United States will undergo major changes. The expansion of production capacity means that the chemical trade and logistics activities of manufacturers and traders will increase significantly, and important ports, terminals and logistics services in the United States and the world It will also grow substantially." Geisler added.

China's PE/PP capacity will increase by 17 million tons

"In addition to North America, coal-to-olefin technology has also helped China increase its production capacity, and China's influence as a low-cost PE supplier is also increasing." Wafildis said. According to IHS statistics, China is expected to add about 17 million tons of polyethylene/polypropylene production capacity in the next five years, which will further drive market volatility.

"The United States and China are currently competing with the Middle East for the global polyethylene/polypropylene market share, which will have a significant impact on the pricing and profits of PE and PP. We at IHS expect to see major changes in the global industry in the future." Diss said. "There will be obvious trade imbalances in North America and the Middle East, because their increased production capacity far exceeds the demand in their domestic market. Therefore, exports are vital to manufacturers."

The number of PE exported from the Middle East to Europe continues to rise

According to IHS analysis, as of now, the import of PE from the Middle East to Europe has exceeded 2015, because the European region has a strong market demand for PE, which provides an attractive net return value for Middle Eastern producers. In addition, the import value of HDPE from January to February 2016 also reached the highest value in the past 8 years, at 148,000 tons, while the export value was the lowest point in the same period, at only 42,000 tons. IHS believes that other PE grades are undergoing a similar trend, that is, production is gradually decreasing.

"According to IHS Chemical’s forecast, PE pricing in Asia will continue to be sluggish for the rest of 2016. With European manufacturers basically not selling profits, this means that the net return from the Middle East to Europe in the next few months will be Still competitive." Waferdis said. "The net return value means that PE products imported from the Middle East to Europe will maintain a relatively high level."